Group

Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

Forecast Timeline

US/NATO Ops in UA

No US/NATO Ops in UA

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
US/NATO Ops in UA	annulled

No US/NATO Ops in UA	no

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine–NATO relations

Vladimir Putin

Donetsk Republic

United States Permanent Representative to NATO

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine–NATO relations

Vladimir Putin

Donetsk Republic

United States Permanent Representative to NATO

Europe Shrugs Off Russia’s Latest Nuclear Threats

Time•Oct 3, 2024

Russia advances as war in Ukraine sees Putin's forces adopt new tactics amid uncertainty over U.S. support

CBS•Oct 3, 2024

The Nuclear Option: Stoltenberg Claims Putin Is Bluffing

Lew Rockwell•Oct 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?