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Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

72 forecasters

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US/NATO Ops in UA

No US/NATO Ops in UA

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US/NATO Ops in Ukraine		My Prediction		Me
US/NATO Ops in UA	annulled

No US/NATO Ops in UA	no

Resolved Dec 31, 2023

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine–NATO relations

Vladimir Putin

Donetsk Republic

United States Permanent Representative to NATO

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.3%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine–NATO relations

Vladimir Putin

Donetsk Republic

United States Permanent Representative to NATO

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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.3%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%