Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

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Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

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118 forecasters

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UA Control in CrimeaMe
> 50 km^2
ambiguous
< 50 km^2
no
Resolved Jan 1, 2024
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