Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will a "Deepfake" video about a national U.S. political candidate running for office in 2018 get 2M+ views?

Resolved :No20%
6
10
Total Forecasters81
Community Prediction20% (10% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 20%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
63.2
Community Peer Score
38.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
christian
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
AI Safety
Elections
Artificial Intelligence
2018 Leaderboard
2018 United States elections
Timothy Hwang
MIT Media Lab
Politician
2020 US presidential election
Cyber-security regulation
Communication
Deepfake

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