Question

Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit?

Resolved :No

25 comments25

Total Forecasters142

Community Prediction40%

Make a Prediction

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

35.8

Community Peer Score

7.7

median 40.0%mean 40.6%

Authors:

aran

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

UK invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on EU

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

Will any country besides the United Kingdom leave the European Union, before 2030?

Will the United Kingdom join the European Economic Area before 2040?

61%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

aran

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

UK invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on EU

Labour’s worrying creep back towards the EU

Spectator (UK)•Oct 9, 2024

Will the UK ‘give up’ Gibraltar next? In Spain, we’re more worried about Brexit’s absurdities | María Ramírez

Guardian•Oct 10, 2024

Spain threatens to bring in hard border at Gibraltar unless UK accepts 'generous' post-Brexit deal that would see Spanish troops stationed on the Rock

Daily Mail•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?

Will any country besides the United Kingdom leave the European Union, before 2030?

Will the United Kingdom join the European Economic Area before 2040?

61%