Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

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Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

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M

Question

Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?

26
11
Total Forecasters175
Community Prediction0.0478 (0.00664 - 0.345)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<1×10⁻⁶
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>100
...
...
...
...
...
1.2%
0.006644
0.04781
0.3452
2.1%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
googolplexbyte
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Fermi Paradox Series
Space
Natural Sciences
Astronomy
Astrophysics
Philosophy
Planetary science
Astrobiology
Fermi paradox
Drake equation
Circumstellar habitable zone

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