Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?

28
10
Total Forecasters163
Community Prediction1.99×10⁻⁴ (6.36×10⁻⁹ - 0.0518)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<1×10⁻²⁰
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
...
4.4%
6.362×10⁻⁹
1.992×10⁻⁴
0.05184
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
googolplexbyte
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Fermi Paradox Series
Space
Natural Sciences
Astronomy
Philosophy
Astrobiology
Fermi paradox
Drake equation

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