Question

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

11 comments11

Total Forecasters97

Community Prediction3.5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3.5%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 3.5%mean 11.1%

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Kiev

Vladimir Putin

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

United States

Maidan Nezalezhnosti

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Kiev

Vladimir Putin

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

United States

Maidan Nezalezhnosti

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

What Putin Has Said About Nuclear Weapons As ATACMS Authorized Against Russia

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

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