Question

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

11 comments11

Total Forecasters97

Community Prediction4%

Make a Prediction

community: 3.5%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 3.5%mean 11.1%

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Kiev

Vladimir Putin

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

United States

Maidan Nezalezhnosti

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Kiev

Vladimir Putin

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

United States

Maidan Nezalezhnosti

US scrambled to urge Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Woodward book says

Associated Press•Oct 9, 2024

Biden Warned Putin Not to Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine, New Book Says

Newsweek•Oct 9, 2024

Putin Allies Suggest Sinking UK with Nuclear Weapons

Newsweek•Oct 9, 2024

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