Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Resolved :Annulled3.5%
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Total Forecasters97
Community Prediction3.5% (1% - 12%)

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community: 3.5%

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Authors:
AlexL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Red Lines in Ukraine
Geopolitics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Soviet Union
Russo-Ukrainian War
United Kingdom
Belarus
Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
Kiev
Vladimir Putin
Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation
United States

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