Question

Will the next "Great Power" war be a nuclear war?

Resolved :Annulled23%

1 comment1

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction23% (4% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 23%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Sep 28, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2200

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2200

Military science

China

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Mutual assured destruction

France

What Is the Biggest Threat to the World in 2025?

Newsweek•Jan 27, 2025

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

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Satellite Picture Shows China's Huge Nuclear Weapons Research Center

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

2042-03-17

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

21%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Sep 28, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2200

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2200

Military science

China

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Mutual assured destruction

France

What Is the Biggest Threat to the World in 2025?

Newsweek•Jan 27, 2025

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

Satellite Picture Shows China's Huge Nuclear Weapons Research Center

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

2042-03-17

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

21%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%