Question

Will the next "Great Power" war be a nuclear war?

Resolved :Annulled23%

1 comment1

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction23% (4% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 23%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Military science

China

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Mutual assured destruction

France

Democracy and World Order

OpEdNews•Dec 18, 2024

China has 600 nukes already, and it wants to beat US missile defenses, the Pentagon says

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

2042-03-17

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

30%

Comments

? comments