Question

Will the next "Great Power" war be a nuclear war?

Resolved :Annulled

1 comment1

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction23%

Make a Prediction

community: 23%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 23.0%mean 29.4%

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Military science

China

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Mutual assured destruction

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

2042-03-17

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

26%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Military science

China

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Mutual assured destruction

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

America Is Updating Its Nuclear Weapons. The Price: $1.7 Trillion. - The New York Times

New York Times•Oct 10, 2024

Nuclear-Armed China Issues Weapons Use Warning

Newsweek•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

2042-03-17

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

26%