Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?

Resolved :No1%
7
31
Total Forecasters170
Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
98.2
Community Peer Score
4.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
EvanHarper
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
Russo-Ukrainian War
Poland
Poland–Ukraine border
Politics of Poland
Russia

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