Question

Will the US midterms be hacked?

Resolved :No

17 comments17

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction45%

Make a Prediction

community: 45%

Did this actually happen?No

median 45.0%mean 43.3%

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2018 United States elections

Director of National Intelligence

United States congressional committee

US Department of Justice

Nevada

North Carolina

Fancy Bear

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

55%

Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?

73%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2018 United States elections

Director of National Intelligence

United States congressional committee

US Department of Justice

Nevada

North Carolina

Fancy Bear

Cybersecurity head says there’s no chance a foreign adversary can change US election results

Associated Press•Oct 3, 2024

Cybersecurity head says no chance foreign country could change US election results in November

Independent•Oct 3, 2024

US Election Results Safe From Foreign Adversaries: Cybersecurity Director

Newsweek•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

55%

Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?

73%

MetaculusM

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Will the US midterms be hacked?

Make a Prediction

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?

Comments

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?

Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?