Group

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

78 comments78

108 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Terran R

Neutron

Starship

New Glenn

Ariane 6

Vulcan Centaur

Make a Prediction

Launch vehicle

median

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Resolved

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Nov 30, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2026

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

SpaceX Starship

SpaceX reusable launch system

Vulcan (rocket)

Arianespace

Neutron

SpaceX launch vehicles

New Glenn

Blue Origin

Rocket Lab

SpaceX to launch Starship test flight 8 after January explosion of flight 7

CNN•Mar 4, 2025

SpaceX Starship Launch Today Is First Flight Since January Explosion

Forbes•Mar 4, 2025

Elon Musk's Starship rocket prepares to fly again

NPR Online News•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

55.7

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Nov 30, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2026

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

SpaceX Starship

SpaceX reusable launch system

Vulcan (rocket)

Arianespace

Neutron

SpaceX launch vehicles

New Glenn

Blue Origin

Rocket Lab

SpaceX to launch Starship test flight 8 after January explosion of flight 7

CNN•Mar 4, 2025

SpaceX Starship Launch Today Is First Flight Since January Explosion

Forbes•Mar 4, 2025

Elon Musk's Starship rocket prepares to fly again

NPR Online News•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

55.7