Question

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

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Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction28% (20% - 35%)

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community: 28%

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Authors:

AlexL

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🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Anti-satellite weapon

2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test

Physics

Military science

Aerospace engineering

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How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

3.31

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Comments

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Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Anti-satellite weapon

2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test

Physics

Military science

Aerospace engineering

K2 Space will fly its extra-large satellite for the first time in 2026

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Pentagon’s annual China-power report notes nuclear, influence threats—but also corruption

Defense One•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

3.31

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

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Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

Make a Prediction

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Comments

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?