Question

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction29.7%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29.7%

median 29.7%mean 31.8%

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Anti-satellite weapon

2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test

Physics

Military science

Aerospace engineering

This SpaceX-competitor's stock has bounced back postelection and analysts love it

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How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

3.31

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Anti-satellite weapon

2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test

Physics

Military science

Aerospace engineering

This SpaceX-competitor's stock has bounced back postelection and analysts love it

CNBC•Nov 13, 2024

Mission Space launches next quarter to provide real-time space weather forecasts

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

After raising nearly half a billion dollars, ABL Space pivots from launch vehicles to missiles

TechCrunch•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

3.31

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k