Group

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

16 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Year	resolution
2025	Annulled
2030	Annulled
2035	Annulled

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100k

28.74k

38.65k

49.08k

4.4%

What was the final result?Annulled

Forecast Timeline

2025

2030

2035

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

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Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

NASA Monitors As Bus-Sized Asteroid Approaches Earth Today

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Mission Space launches next quarter to provide real-time space weather forecasts

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

42.4k

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Video Shows Dramatic Fireball Over US As SpaceX Starlink Satellite Reenters

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

NASA Monitors As Bus-Sized Asteroid Approaches Earth Today

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Mission Space launches next quarter to provide real-time space weather forecasts

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

42.4k

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k