Group

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

16 comments16

16 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Resolved

Forecast Timeline

2025

2030

2035

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Nov 30, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2036

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Earth

Kessler syndrome

Satellites are polluting the stratosphere

Economist•Mar 6, 2025

Must-See Sky Events In Spring 2025 — From A ‘Blood Moon’ To ‘Shooting Stars’

Forbes•Mar 6, 2025

How "asteroid detectives" are protecting Earth from potentially dangerous impacts: "Find them before they find you"

CBS•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

42.5k

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.12k

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Nov 30, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2036

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Earth

Kessler syndrome

Satellites are polluting the stratosphere

Economist•Mar 6, 2025

Must-See Sky Events In Spring 2025 — From A ‘Blood Moon’ To ‘Shooting Stars’

Forbes•Mar 6, 2025

How "asteroid detectives" are protecting Earth from potentially dangerous impacts: "Find them before they find you"

CBS•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

42.5k

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.12k