Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?

Resolved :Yes68%
13
14
Total Forecasters41
Community Prediction68% (61% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 68%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
27.6
Community Peer Score
1.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
David Lammy
Greater London Authority
First-past-the-post voting
Jeremy Corbyn
Sadiq Khan
London mayoral elections
Dawn Butler

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