Question

What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024?

Resolved :55.04

8 comments8

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction5.04 (4.94 - 5.41)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>12

...

1.0%

4.936

5.038

5.409

0.3%

What was the final result?5

Community Baseline Score

42.1

Community Peer Score

29.4

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Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Politics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Iran

Afghanistan

2017–18 North Korea crisis

War in Donbass

Council on Foreign Relations

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea

Taiwan

Conflicts of Interest: Will Israel Attack Iran Next?

AntiWar•Dec 16, 2024

Foreign Policy in the Second Trump Administration Takes Shape

•Dec 16, 2024

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term

•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Politics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Iran

Afghanistan

2017–18 North Korea crisis

War in Donbass

Council on Foreign Relations

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea

Taiwan

Conflicts of Interest: Will Israel Attack Iran Next?

AntiWar•Dec 16, 2024

Foreign Policy in the Second Trump Administration Takes Shape

•Dec 16, 2024

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term

•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?

55%