📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

13
13
114 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Year25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>20
...
...
...
...
...
18.0%
1.385
2.73
4.054
1.3%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
AlexL
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Space
Economy & Business
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Soviet Union
Artemis program
Chang'e 3
Chandrayaan-3
Apollo 17
Science fiction
Luna 24
Apollo program
NASA

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