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What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

26 forecasters

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Year	25th	median	75th
2025	64.1 ...	75.1 ...	101 ...
2030	106 ...	144 ...	189 ...
2035	135 ...	182 ...	254 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

<25

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>250

...

2.9%

64.12

75.11

101.3

0.6%

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Forecast Timeline

2030

2035

2025

Authors:

AlexL

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

SpaceX reusable launch system

Falcon Heavy

Low Earth orbit

Space Shuttle program

Aerospace engineering

Physics

Surrey Satellite Technology

Space Shuttle

SpaceX

Here’s How Much Elon Musk Companies Grew in Value in 2024

Observer (NY)•Dec 13, 2024

The Moon and Mars – Not a pie in the sky if the FAA and EPA will just get out of the way

American Thinker•Dec 15, 2024

From Starship tests to Starliner woes, recapping the biggest spaceflight missions of 2024

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

11.7

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

218k

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What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

Comments

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?