Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

7
0
Total Forecasters31
Community Prediction1.06k (808 - 1.46k)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<600
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>10k
...
...
...
...
...
6.3%
808.5
1.058k
1.462k
1.1%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AlexL
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Economy & Business
Technology
Space
Kessler syndrome
Earth's orbit

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