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Question
How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?
6
4 comments
4
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
38
Community Prediction
3.31
Make a Prediction
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
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My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>100
...
...
...
1.345
3.307
7.079
0.4%
Background Info
Authors:
AlexL
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Geopolitics
Space
Technology
Anti-satellite weapon
2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test
Physics
Military science
China
Aerospace engineering
Russia
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News Match
Ghost Rockets, ASAT Tests Create “A Ticking Time Bomb” For Astronauts
Forbes
•
Oct 8, 2024
Starship: When will SpaceX's next 'chopstick' test flight go ahead?
New Scientist
•
Oct 11, 2024
SpaceX is about to test its Starship. Why does that matter?
Economist
•
Oct 11, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
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Authors:
AlexL
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Geopolitics
Space
Technology
Anti-satellite weapon
2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test
Physics
Military science
China
Aerospace engineering
Russia
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
Ghost Rockets, ASAT Tests Create “A Ticking Time Bomb” For Astronauts
Forbes
•
Oct 8, 2024
Starship: When will SpaceX's next 'chopstick' test flight go ahead?
New Scientist
•
Oct 11, 2024
SpaceX is about to test its Starship. Why does that matter?
Economist
•
Oct 11, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
30%
What will be the number of operational satellites in each year?
10k
What will be the total number of successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
Show More Questions