Question

When will the first commercial in-orbit refueling take place?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction2027-04-24 (2026-03-20 - 2028-08-13)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2036-01-01

...

2026-03-20 15:55

2027-04-24 12:40

2028-08-13 06:59

1.7%

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Dec 15, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

This Company Wants to Build a Space Station That Has Artificial Gravity

Wired•Jan 22, 2025

New Glenn launch: Blue Origin's reusable rocket set for maiden flight

New Scientist•Jan 23, 2025

Y Combinator grad Spaceium raises oversubscribed $6.3M for space re-fueling

TechCrunch•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a free flying commercial space station become operational?

2030-05-02

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

2028-10-09

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

55.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Dec 15, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

This Company Wants to Build a Space Station That Has Artificial Gravity

Wired•Jan 22, 2025

New Glenn launch: Blue Origin's reusable rocket set for maiden flight

New Scientist•Jan 23, 2025

Y Combinator grad Spaceium raises oversubscribed $6.3M for space re-fueling

TechCrunch•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a free flying commercial space station become operational?

2030-05-02

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

2028-10-09

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

55.6