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What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

40 forecasters

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Year	25th	median	75th
2025	1.95 ...	2.09 ...	2.23 ...
2030	2.57 ...	4.02 ...	6.93 ...
2035	8.78 ...	20 ...	49.6 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10

...

1.952

2.094

2.228

0.1%

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

2025

2030

2035

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

SpaceX reusable launch system

Apollo 12

Apollo 14

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

Astronauts who flew to space aboard Starliner face additional delay

CNN•Dec 19, 2024

NASA astronauts stranded in space get more bad news as rescue mission is delayed

Daily Mail•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.57

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

2040-08-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

SpaceX reusable launch system

Apollo 12

Apollo 14

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

Astronauts who flew to space aboard Starliner face additional delay

CNN•Dec 19, 2024

NASA astronauts stranded in space get more bad news as rescue mission is delayed

Daily Mail•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.57

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

2040-08-27

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What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

Comments

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?