Question

In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?

Resolved :No1%

33 comments33

Total Forecasters227

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

53.0

Community Peer Score

7.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Technology

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Scott Alexander

Ukraine

Russia

A brief history of missing US nuclear weapons

Snopes•Feb 13, 2025

A drone strike at Chernobyl has raised Ukraine’s nuclear ghosts. What are the dangers?

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.4%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035-12-11

Comments

? comments