Question

In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?

Resolved :No

33 comments33

Total Forecasters227

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

53.0

Community Peer Score

7.8

median 1.0%mean 2.2%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%