Question

In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?

Resolved :No

33 comments33

Total Forecasters227

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

53.0

Community Peer Score

7.8

median 1.0%mean 2.2%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Putin rehearses nuclear WAR: Russia gives terrifying glimpse of WW3 onset by testing missiles capable of unleashing 'massive nuclear strike'

Daily Mail•Oct 30, 2024

Putin orders nuclear forces to be 'ready for combat use' due to new 'external threats and risks' in latest chilling WW3 rant as he watches missile exercises

Daily Mail•Oct 30, 2024

Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation

•Oct 30, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%