Question

In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?

Resolved :No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters108

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.9

Community Peer Score

3.4

median 0.1%mean 1.0%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

0.3%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

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Newsweek•Nov 8, 2024

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Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

0.3%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%