🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?

Resolved :No0.1%
9
6
Total Forecasters223
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
97.2
Community Peer Score
7.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
Geopolitics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Taiwan–US relations
Taiwan
Scott Alexander
China

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