Question

Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?

90 comments90

Total Forecasters527

Community Prediction80% (66.7% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Aug 28, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 30, 2040

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After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

30.2

Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

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