Question

In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?

Resolved :No1%

23 comments23

Total Forecasters226

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.3

Community Peer Score

4.7

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Mar 5, 2024

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Scott Alexander

War in Donbass

Ukraine has firepower to fight on without US support – for now

Guardian•Mar 5, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Geopolitical conflict and its impact on global markets

•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

27%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Comments

? comments