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When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

30 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Qwp ≥ 1

Qsci ≥ 5

Make a Prediction

Milestone	25th	median	75th
Qsci ≥ 5	2029-08-24 ...	2034-12-22 ...	2045-12-28 ...
Qwp ≥ 1	2033-01-11 ...	2039-12-07 ...	2054-07-19 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2069-12-31

...

2029-08-24 20:59

2034-12-22 06:16

2045-12-28 18:03

9.6%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

National Ignition Facility

Inertial confinement fusion

EUROfusion

Magnetic confinement fusion

Magneto-inertial fusion

California's Green Dream Faces a Reality Check

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Focused Energy buys two of the world’s most powerful lasers for its fusion quest

TechCrunch•Dec 17, 2024

Commonwealth Fusion Systems just picked its first commercial site partly because of its proximity to Washington, D.C.

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

National Ignition Facility

Inertial confinement fusion

EUROfusion

Magnetic confinement fusion

Magneto-inertial fusion

California's Green Dream Faces a Reality Check

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Focused Energy buys two of the world’s most powerful lasers for its fusion quest

TechCrunch•Dec 17, 2024

Commonwealth Fusion Systems just picked its first commercial site partly because of its proximity to Washington, D.C.

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?

Comments

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?