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Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

7 comments7

26 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

United States

Estonia

Poland

Latvia

Lithuania

Romania

Make a Prediction

Country		My Prediction		Me
United States	35%

Estonia	28%

Poland	28%

Latvia	27%

Lithuania	26%

Romania	10%

France	8%

Turkey	8%

Hungary	5%

United Kingdom	5%

Norway	5%

Slovakia	5%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council

Turkey

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Russo-Ukrainian War

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Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council

Turkey

September 11 attacks

Russo-Ukrainian War

North Atlantic Treaty

NATO Calls on Nations To Divert Social Security Money to Defense

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Map Shows Possible WWIII Frontlines if Russia Invaded Europe

Newsweek•Dec 14, 2024

"Peace on Planet Earth: Cancel Your NATO Membership. It's Easy?? "Say Goodbye" to the Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) - Global Research

Global Research•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

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Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Comments

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?