Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?

Resolved :No1%
20
90
Total Forecasters337
Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
78.6
Community Peer Score
16.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Firenze
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Kramatorsk
Donetsk
Luhansk
Kherson
Russo-Ukrainian War
Donbass
Belarus–Russia relations
Luhansk Oblast
Sumy

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