Question

Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?

Resolved :No

11 comments11

Total Forecasters120

Community Prediction22%

Make a Prediction

community: 22%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

47.9

Community Peer Score

9.1

median 22.0%mean 25.9%

Authors:

aran

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Ted Cruz

Lloyd Bentsen

Democratic Party (US)

Beto O'Rourke

2018 United States Senate elections

Texas

US Senate

Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?

95%

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

aran

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Ted Cruz

Lloyd Bentsen

Democratic Party (US)

Beto O'Rourke

2018 United States Senate elections

Texas

US Senate

New Ted Cruz Poll Shows Voting Group 'Potentially Swinging' Race

Newsweek•Oct 9, 2024

Ted Cruz Gets Polling Boost in Texas

Newsweek•Oct 10, 2024

Ted Cruz and Colin Allred wage another big US Senate fight in Texas

Associated Press•Oct 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?

95%

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%