Question

Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?

Resolved :No22%

11 comments11

Total Forecasters120

Community Prediction22% (20% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 22%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

47.9

Community Peer Score

9.1

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

aran

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Democratic Party (US)

Beto O'Rourke

2018 United States Senate elections

Texas

US Senate

After the 2024 election, Democrats are at a steep disadvantage in the Senate

•Dec 20, 2024

The judge goes red

American Thinker•Dec 13, 2024

Democrats Didn't Do As Badly in the Election As It First Appeared. They're Still Screwed.

PJ Media•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

aran

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Democratic Party (US)

Beto O'Rourke

2018 United States Senate elections

Texas

US Senate

After the 2024 election, Democrats are at a steep disadvantage in the Senate

•Dec 20, 2024

The judge goes red

American Thinker•Dec 13, 2024

Democrats Didn't Do As Badly in the Election As It First Appeared. They're Still Screwed.

PJ Media•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?

60%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?

Make a Prediction

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?

Comments

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?