Question

When will one TeraFLOP/s cost <$1?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters78

Community Prediction2029-05-17 (2026-03-11 - 2033-06-25)

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lower 25%

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upper 75%

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2026-03-11 22:14

2029-05-17 09:44

2033-06-25 04:10

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Authors:

Tamay

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Computing and Math

FLOPS

Measurement

Information technology

United States

The Human Brain Operates at a Stunningly Slow Pace

Scientific American•Dec 18, 2024

Nvidia’s $249 dev kit promises cheap, small AI power

Verge•Dec 18, 2024

A chip company you probably never heard of is suddenly worth $1 trillion. Here's why, and what it means for Nvidia.

Business Insider•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

2035-07-10

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

18.7k

Comments

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

FLOPS

Measurement

Information technology

United States

The Human Brain Operates at a Stunningly Slow Pace

Scientific American•Dec 18, 2024

Nvidia’s $249 dev kit promises cheap, small AI power

Verge•Dec 18, 2024

A chip company you probably never heard of is suddenly worth $1 trillion. Here's why, and what it means for Nvidia.

Business Insider•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

2035-07-10

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

18.7k

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will one TeraFLOP/s cost <$1?

Make a Prediction

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Comments

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?