Question

Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?

Resolved :No

37 comments37

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction40%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-31.3

Community Peer Score

31.3

median 40.0%mean 38.6%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

43.2%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

43.2%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%