Question

Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?

Resolved :No40%

37 comments37

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction40% (24% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-31.3

Community Peer Score

31.3

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Sep 13, 2018

Closes:

Sep 1, 2019

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2021

2016-2020 Leaderboard

How OpenAI’s Sam Altman Is Thinking About AGI and Superintelligence in 2025

Time•Jan 22, 2025

With the knives out on development spending, have we reached ‘peak aid’? | Nilima Gulrajani and Jessica Pudussery

Guardian•Jan 23, 2025

Fundraise Up claims its AI can boost nonprofit donations

TechCrunch•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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79%

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

40%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%

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