Question

Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?

Resolved :No40%

37 comments37

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction40% (24% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-31.3

Community Peer Score

31.3

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2016-2020 Leaderboard

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Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

40%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2016-2020 Leaderboard

OpenAI's Growing Pains: Leadership Exodus & Capitalization

•Dec 17, 2024

Giving Circles Help Donors Find Purpose Beyond The Money

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

2024: The Year Of Corporate Sustainability Growing Pains

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

40%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?

Make a Prediction

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

Comments

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?