M

Question

On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?

Resolved :No
1
1
Total Forecasters100
Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
92.6
Community Peer Score
7.6
median 0.1%mean 0.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
Elections
Scott Alexander
Democratic Party (US)
Gavin Newsom
Manifold
2024 Elections (US)

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