M

Question

On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?

Resolved :No
11
8
Total Forecasters183
Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
93.7
Community Peer Score
13.7
median 0.1%mean 1.1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
Geopolitics
Sevastopol
Scott Alexander
Donetsk Oblast
Luhansk Oblast
Ukraine
Crimea

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