Question

On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?

Resolved :Yes

6 comments6

Total Forecasters153

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

83.9

Community Peer Score

11.9

median 99.0%mean 98.9%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Prime Minister of the UK

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

70%

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Prime Minister of the UK

James Cleverly emerges as frontrunner in UK Conservatives leadership race

Al Jazeera•Oct 9, 2024

PMQs live: Keir Starmer to face Rishi Sunak as Tory MPs prepare to vote in leadership ballot

Guardian•Oct 9, 2024

Rishi Sunak is the most effective opposition leader since Tony Blair

Spectator (UK)•Oct 9, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

70%