Question

Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?

Resolved :No1%

26 comments26

Total Forecasters134

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-1.1

Community Peer Score

36.1

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Economy & Business

2022-2023 Leaderboard

United States

Scott Alexander

Unemployment in the US

Analysis: How will inflation, interest rates and the U.S. consumer fare in 2025?

PBS NewsHour•Jan 27, 2025

Policy Uncertainty “Trumps” A Weakening Economy

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

The economic lookout for 2025 is strong, but there's still a lot that could go wrong

CNBC•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?

40%

Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2031?

42%

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

Comments

? comments