Question

In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?

Resolved :No

9 comments9

Total Forecasters124

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

26.1

Community Peer Score

33.8

median 1.0%mean 4.7%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

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