Question

Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?

Resolved :Annulled50%

23 comments23

Total Forecasters96

Community Prediction50% (30% - 60%)

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community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Dec 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Dec 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

AI Demonstrations

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Do Chatbots Just Need More Time to ‘Think’?

Scientific American•Jan 23, 2025

AI Is Too Unpredictable to Behave According to Human Goals

Scientific American•Jan 27, 2025

DeepSeek vs. ChatGPT: I tried the hot new AI model. It was impressive, but there were some things it wouldn't talk about.

Business Insider•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%