Question

Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?

Resolved :Yes51%

21 comments21

Total Forecasters107

Community Prediction51% (43% - 63.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

5.9

Community Peer Score

9.9

Authors:

dschwarz

Opened:

Dec 26, 2022

Closes:

Mar 31, 2023

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2023

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Transformer (machine learning model)

OpenAI debuts ChatGPT Gov, a new version of the chatbot for US government agencies

FOX News•Jan 28, 2025

Generative AI Still Needs to Prove Its Usefulness

Wired•Jan 30, 2025

DeepSeek’s Chatbot Has an Important Message

Atlantic•Jan 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-06-30

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz

Opened:

Dec 26, 2022

Closes:

Mar 31, 2023

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2023

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Transformer (machine learning model)

OpenAI debuts ChatGPT Gov, a new version of the chatbot for US government agencies

FOX News•Jan 28, 2025

Generative AI Still Needs to Prove Its Usefulness

Wired•Jan 30, 2025

DeepSeek’s Chatbot Has an Important Message

Atlantic•Jan 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-06-30

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%