Question

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction1.76k (1.67k - 1.85k)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<175

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10k

...

0.3%

1.673k

1.765k

1.849k

0.2%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

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Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Linguistics

OpenAI

DeepMind

Microsoft debuts Phi-4, a new generative AI model, in research preview

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI Under Fire: Leadership Shake-ups and Rising Competition

•Dec 17, 2024

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

3.95B

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Linguistics

OpenAI

DeepMind

Microsoft debuts Phi-4, a new generative AI model, in research preview

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI Under Fire: Leadership Shake-ups and Rising Competition

•Dec 17, 2024

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

3.95B

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If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

Make a Prediction

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

Comments

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?