Question

Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?

Resolved :Yes98%

5 comments5

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction98% (94% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 98%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

59.6

Community Peer Score

11.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

biloliiaa

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

2019 United Kingdom general election

Conservative Party (UK)

United Kingdom

Parliament of the UK

Labour Party (UK)

Have those who say Starmer is failing forgotten the madness of the Tory years already? | Andy Beckett

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

Starmer receives worst rating yet as Labour leader

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Guardian Essential poll: Albanese disapproval at 50% as majority say Australia on the wrong track

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

biloliiaa

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

2019 United Kingdom general election

Conservative Party (UK)

United Kingdom

Parliament of the UK

Labour Party (UK)

Have those who say Starmer is failing forgotten the madness of the Tory years already? | Andy Beckett

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

Starmer receives worst rating yet as Labour leader

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Guardian Essential poll: Albanese disapproval at 50% as majority say Australia on the wrong track

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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