Question

Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?

Resolved :Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction98%

Make a Prediction

community: 98%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

59.6

Community Peer Score

11.0

median 98.0%mean 93.3%

Authors:

biloliiaa

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2019 United Kingdom general election

Conservative Party (UK)

United Kingdom

Parliament of the UK

Labour Party (UK)

Comments

? comments

Authors:

biloliiaa

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2019 United Kingdom general election

Conservative Party (UK)

United Kingdom

Parliament of the UK

Labour Party (UK)

Labour lead slashed to one point

Spectator (UK)•Oct 8, 2024

UK’s new Labour government unveils overhaul of workers’ rights

Associated Press•Oct 10, 2024

For Labour voters, the Greens are now more popular than Labour itself

Canary•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

70%

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?

15%