Question

[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?

Resolved :1515

35 comments35

Total Forecasters68

Community Prediction15 (14.8 - 15.5)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>20

...

14.77

15.03

15.54

7.9%

What was the final result?15

Community Baseline Score

-10.6

Community Peer Score

27.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

Vice President of the US

Speaker of the US House of Representatives

US House of Representatives

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

President of the US

United States

Republican Party (US)

Is the speaker’s gavel slowly slipping away from Mike Johnson?

MSNBC•Dec 20, 2024

Mike Johnson's Hopes of Remaining House Speaker Nosedive

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Full List of Republicans Considering Elon Musk for House Speaker

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

99%

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

0.1%

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

Vice President of the US

Speaker of the US House of Representatives

US House of Representatives

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

President of the US

United States

Republican Party (US)

Is the speaker’s gavel slowly slipping away from Mike Johnson?

MSNBC•Dec 20, 2024

Mike Johnson's Hopes of Remaining House Speaker Nosedive

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Full List of Republicans Considering Elon Musk for House Speaker

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

99%

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

0.1%

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?

Make a Prediction

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Comments

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?