📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years?

5
23
11 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Judgesresolution
Judges25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
<5
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>150
0.1%
58.83
68.41
72.04
0.2%

What was the final result?71

Community Baseline Score
41.3
Community Peer Score
16.5

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
Anastasia
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Law
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2023 Leaderboard
Supreme Court of the US
Constitution of the US
United States District Court for the District of Columbia
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
Federal judiciary of the United States
Puerto Rico
Federal tribunals in the United States

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