Question

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

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Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction65% (50% - 69%)

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community: 65%

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Lawrence

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AI Training and Compute

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Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

2025-04-06

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

Comments

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Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

We’ll Need To Anticipate AI Using A Lot Of Resources In Tomorrow’s World

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

Rethinking Learning Theory—the Value of LLMs

Psychology Today•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

2025-04-06

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

Make a Prediction

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

Comments

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?