Question

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction65% (57% - 69%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Jan 7, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

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When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

2025-05-30

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.49M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

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