Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Pope Francis resign by the end of the year?

Resolved :No7%
5
6
Total Forecasters94
Community Prediction7% (4% - 18%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
70.1
Community Peer Score
1.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AdamK
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
2018 Leaderboard
Holy See
Paul the Apostle
Santa Maria Maggiore
Catholic Church sexual abuse cases
Pope Francis
Catholic Church

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