Question

Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?

33 comments33

Total Forecasters202

Community Prediction17.5% (10% - 26%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17.5%

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

May 8, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2041

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2041

Elections

LGBT

Obergefell v. Hodges

Supreme Court of the US

President of the US

LGBTQ+ population in US rises to 9.3%, poll finds

CNN•Feb 21, 2025

Nearly 1 in 10 U.S. adults identify as LGBTQ, Gallup survey finds

NBC•Feb 20, 2025

New data shows number of Americans who are gay, bi or trans has TREBLED in past decade

Daily Mail•Feb 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?

What percentage of American adults in 2070 will identify as LGBTQ?

12.4

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

May 8, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2041

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2041

Elections

LGBT

Obergefell v. Hodges

Supreme Court of the US

President of the US

LGBTQ+ population in US rises to 9.3%, poll finds

CNN•Feb 21, 2025

Nearly 1 in 10 U.S. adults identify as LGBTQ, Gallup survey finds

NBC•Feb 20, 2025

New data shows number of Americans who are gay, bi or trans has TREBLED in past decade

Daily Mail•Feb 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?

What percentage of American adults in 2070 will identify as LGBTQ?

12.4